I know, I know, everyone says something is going to collapse and nothing seems to ever actually collapse. I mean, besides Sri Lanka. Y’all are probably convinced nothing is going to ever get around to collapsing.
That’s the trouble with politics. It has its own time scale. Things are moving pretty quickly of late but that just means that stuff is happening over months and years instead of decades.
Political collapses are glacial until they abruptly join the Indianapolis 500. Zero to 1000 in 6 seconds but it had been doing 3 mph in the 30 mph zone. It’s anyone’s guess as to when exactly those things shift into overdrive. But they do shift.
Despite the title, I don’t believe in some grand conspiracy to keep the elitists in power by joining forces. It’s more the coalescing of two different but similarly aligned movements in the two parties. The Democrats went nuts trying to build an unbreakable coalition of every political group, most especially the aggrieved minorities, that they could squish under their ‘big tent’. The Republicans fought desperately to keep the populist and socially conservative rabble from taking over their fiscally conservative and elitist as all get out tea party.
In the meantime, both parties found it more convenient to run on issues rather than ever solve them once elected. That worked for the Democrats as they convinced their congregation that they had to win on gay rights first and to pass the hat. It also helped the Republicans to never seem to get any socially conservative measures enacted while passing the fiscal measures the party elites wanted – usually.
Oh, it was far from perfect as a strategy. The Democrats have lost all connection to their original base and most connections to reality. Republicans found to their chagrin that the unwashed masses were not going to stay with the crazy Democrats and they would unforgivably elect firebrands from time to time.
They managed to disaffect about one third of all voters in the long and stupid process. Although that probably helped initially as the rise of the Independent most likely prevented the party system shift we were expecting in the 1980’s.
Notice that we pretty much ignore independents nowadays. It’s not that they don’t matter – they do – it’s that they aren’t really independent. They’re mostly independent identifiers. When you look at their voting it breaks between the parties with a slight majority to the Dems most years.
Hey, if I were still a Democrat I wouldn’t admit it, either!
All things considered, it was an impressively long run. What shouldn’t have lasted more than a decade survived for three. But the kegs are all empty and it’s pretty obvious the party is over. The American people are pretty fed up with the whole thing.
Okay, so the Orwellian newspeak and the overt attacks on the First Amendment are unnerving. They’re also suicidal for the Left side of the aisle. Eventually, the folks who pay little attention to politics get clued in and they seldom respond well to finding out that the guys they left in charge are total crazies.
Ask Bud Light, Target and Disney how well the so called ‘normies’ take nonsense once they can’t ignore it any longer.
Last year, I figured the Democrats would collapse first. Now I’m not so sure. They’re crazier by far but the Republican leadership just can’t help itself and keeps trying to turn back the clock to when the Republican Party was little better than a rich boy’s country club. The Republican base is having none of it and they are spreading the word.
I’d still bet on the Democrats going under first – 2024 is not going to be pretty if the elections are even half decently run. If there are real questions as in 2020, the Republicans are going down hard and fast. But they are both so toxically self destructive that I’m not sure they won’t both shoot themselves in the foot before we even get to November 2024.
The Republican leadership seems to have gotten at least part of the memo so they may save their backsides – wouldn’t really bet on it. Trump will be the nominee but the party leadership’s opposition to him will come back to bite long before Trump even takes office. Trump is politically and fiscally situated to make good on his Patriot Party threat and his base will be more than happy for him to pull the trigger – along with the rest of the disgruntled unwashed masses.
The Democrats are literally running cities so poorly that they are losing population and that spells disaster if Biden gets the nomination. The base and the majority of Democrats do not want Biden. They don’t want Harris, either. And indicting repeatedly Trump is just ticking off everyone. They don’t like Trump but they like the political witch hunts even less. Since running against Trump is literally all the Democrats have, this likely spells disaster as people just stay home.
Neither party is fundraising particularly well. Republicans are trailing but that’s mostly because Republican voters are skipping the party coffers and donating directly, mostly to Trump. But the Democrats are only about twice the strength of the Republicans in small donors – they should be a lot further ahead than that. Dems live on turnout. People that won’t bother to donate also won’t bother to show up.
I suspect it comes down to which party starts serious infighting first. So far, the Dems are ahead but Republicans are gaining. Democrats are associated with wokeness and that is increasingly associated with a good way to destroy your business – those big donors Democrats count on are getting skittish. Republicans, not to be outdone, are determined to divide the party themselves over Trump having not noticed that Trump’s base dwarfs the party’s base.
I was wrong about the midterms and I could be wrong now. Maybe both parties miraculously survive the oncoming carnage. But I doubt it. The Dems can’t keep up their smokescreen forever. Even if they could, too many regular folks have caught on that something isn’t right. They will be paying more attention this cycle than usual. That doesn’t bode well for the Democrats or the Republicans.
One way or the other, eventually, one of the two will start its collapse. This cycle or another, it doesn’t matter when, whichever one goes, especially if it’s both, one thing is for sure.
The Uniparty is a goner.
