Short answer: No. See y’all next time…
Okay, okay, long answer: No, it’s just politics as usual. Frankly, I’m amazed it took this long.
The problem is the leadership vacuum. There really isn’t a leader on the NATO side. Biden is, well, Biden. He has trouble getting his dog to follow him. Johnson is as close to a leader as NATO has right now as he’s gotten in front of a lot of the stuff that needed doing. He’s not part of the EU, however, and that creates a bit of a problem – the Europeans.
Specifically, the European leaders. They want to solidify Europe and to be seen as statesmen – and having that Brexit upstart stealing their thunder probably irks. There’s zero chance they’ll say that out loud – European people aren’t having it. They only care about stopping Russia from becoming an even greater threat; leadership egos are to be left at the door.
So what’s a good leader with a pained ego to do? Pretend to help! Everyone likes peace, right? So if they can broker a peace deal, the European Union and their reputations come out on top and everyone forgets about Johnson. This is probably what sounded good in their heads. Reality had a different idea.
Putin wants a win, not a peace deal. Zelinskii wants his country back, not a ceasefire. Europeans want a safer Europe and energy security, not an agreement that isn’t worth the paper it is written on. None of the above give a flip about the hurting egos of Macron, Scholz and whoever else.
The result is a DOA peace effort that makes France and Germany look bad. Fortunately, it’s not a serious rift – it’s not like the rest of Europe and NATO demanded that there be no negotiations. Looks really stupid more than anything else – on the NATO side.
There is one danger – Putin could easily mistake those overtures for a growing rift. At the moment, I doubt it matters but if Russia is convinced Europe will falter in its resolve to support Ukraine, then Russia will stay in Ukraine as long as they possibly can, no matter how many Russian bodies they leave behind.
But this seems unlikely. If Finland and Sweden can overcome Turkey’s objections and join NATO, which is as close to a shoe in as international relations ever gets, then the chances of a split in NATO plummet. Estimates are that it will take two years to wean Europe, especially Germany, off of Russian gas but those may be overly conservative. Still, two years is not that long for Europe but way too long for Russia.
As the war stalls yet again, this creates a lot of pressure on Russia. Men, materiel, international status, economic security: Russia only loses these as the war drags on.
Granted, Europe would really, really like the war to be over now, but Europe can afford the effects of the sanctions and the conversion to other energy suppliers. A lovely little pipeline under the Caspian Sea and Turkmenistan can start supplying oil and gas to Europe – strengthening themselves, Georgia and Armenia as well as Europe in the process.
Russia is betting everything that European unity is fleeting. But it has grossly underestimated just how little the Europeans care for Russian domination. Europe got careless and lazy but those days are done. Russia is betting they will soon return. After all, prices are climbing and European leaders are sniffing around for a deal – Europe must be fragmenting, right?
No. If that were going to happen, it would have already shown significantly by now. Germany may be after a peace deal but its also digging up coal and holding off shutting down its nuclear reactors. France is, well, France, but it is also building new nuclear power plants and running its existing ones at peak capacity. And the big one, a ban on Russian oil has been announced.1
All European nations are taking a very serious look at both their military and energy security. That’s not fragmentation; that’s resolve.
Europe will probably fuss and fight – all kids do – but they are still brothers and sisters at the end of it. The Russian invasion of Ukraine has solidified European and NATO determination like never before. That is not changing any time soon.
Basically, Russia is betting on a horse to win the Indy 500.
1https://www.cbsnews.com/news/russia-oil-ban-european-union/
