We don’t know.
I’m not just being snarky for once. Russian analysts, who are all probably massively underpaid, have trouble figuring out Russian actions under the best of circumstances. These are the worst of circumstances. That means that anyone saying they ‘know’ what exactly is happening in Russia is either lying or delusional.
It’s just too early and we have too little reliable information. Peter Zeihan pointed out in one of his videos today that you will be hearing a LOT of things. Some will even be true. He’s right. There’s way too much information and too little confirmation for even a well educated guess.
That won’t stop folks from trying, including Yours Truly. The world doesn’t come in size perfect and you have to work with what you’ve got. You also have to be realistic about what you’ve got and right now, we have very, very little.
What can you do to better understand the news? First, get as many perspectives as you can. Ignore the Lamestream talking heads – those are commentators and quasi-journalists and their assessments aren’t worth the paper they aren’t printed on. You want to hear from the experts. Not the usual crew of CNN cronies or Fox’s cadre but folks that work in the areas or have worked in those areas of military and Russian analysis.
YouTube, Rumble and international news sources like DW (it leans left), SkyNews (leans right) and the BBC (very hard left) are best as they don’t tend to crowd out the experts. If the interviewer is doing most of the talking, move along.
Second, don’t believe everything you hear no matter how good you think the source is. The Russian government is going to work against good information leaking out and go into overdrive pumping out garbage. They aren’t any more perfect than anyone else so some good stuff will leak. But even the best analysts can be fooled and not every ‘analyst’ actually is. One very large grain of salt with every information meal. Doctor’s orders.
Third, look for facts over analysis. If you hear the same fact from multiple good sources, you can have more confidence in it. Ironically, TASS and RT are among the best sources right now. Mostly because being Russian they have the best access but also because they don’t cope well with breaking news. They are more likely to slip up and toss in actual facts the Russian government would rather not get out. You need an extra large grain of that salt, but things that make the Russian government look bad are likely to have a good bit of truth to them.
I’m just a lowly commentator with a couple degrees in Poli Sci so I wouldn’t call my assessment right now an ‘analysis’ – it’s not and there’s not enough info for me to do that right now. So extra strength salt on my opinions – because that’s all I can offer right now.
So, what do I think is going on? Some sort of armed rebellion/insurrection, possibly a coup attempt but I doubt it at the moment. A coup should have started in Moscow, not twelve hours away. However, there are way too many credible reports of Wagner forces taking Russian towns and moving toward Moscow to dismiss it as something minor.
Either Prigozhin is a total idiot, or he’s sincere about only wanting to go after the Ministry of Defense or he’s playing five d chess. I’d bet on none of the above. Most likely is a combination of the last two. He’s out to get Shoigu and is looking to leverage that as much as he can.
Could this turn into a coup? Sure.
Could the coup/rebellion/insurrection fail? It most likely will fail unless it doesn’t. I know, I sound like I’m being cagey but the safe bet is on failure but that’s always true of coups. There’s just not enough to go on to predict the chances of success or failure right now.
Will this end the War in Ukraine? Dunno but it can only help the Ukrainians at this point. Putin could use it as an excuse to declare victory and retreat. But it’s also possible that neither Putin nor Prigozhin will be left standing when the dust settles, in which case all bets are off.
Will it start WW3? No, quit being silly. If this war was going to escalate that far it would have done so already. Russia would like to continue to exist and Ukraine isn’t worth that much pain.
Will Russia collapse? Immediately? Probably not, but this is not a good sign for the long term health of the Russian Federation. Too early to guess beyond that.
Will Putin stay in power? Probably. But I wouldn’t take any bets either way. It’s just too early and too many cards aren’t yet on the table.
What about China? They are probably watching very, very closely and praying that they aren’t called upon. China does not need this headache.
Will Biden notice? Jill will be informed. Joe will probably be busy with his exhausting napping schedule.
To be somewhat fair, the US will monitor and just wait. If Russia wants to mess itself up, we’re not going to stop them. The best thing for Biden to do at the moment is have another ice cream cone and stay out of it.
What can the US do? Pop a lot of popcorn and pass the butter. Seriously, it’s time to just watch and wait. If need be, the State Department will make it clear that anything involving a nuclear accident or bombing will get an American response. Other than that, let Russia deal with itself.
It’s like siblings fighting. Never, ever jump in between brothers because they will forget their fight and pile on top of you. America is very content to watch Russia fight with itself.
Pass the popcorn.
