I know – I just got through telling you not to get cocky about 2022. And it’s true enough that we shouldn’t be cocky about this, either – but there’s a difference in seeing a possibility and smelling a skunk.

The proverbial skunk here is the Democrat media that is once again sounding the alarm bell about the upcoming civil war – which would be easier to take seriously if they didn’t sound like Bill Murray in Ghostbusters. So, being serious, we have two questions: is this possibility a real probability at present? If not, why would the media shill for it?

First question first: it is very unlikely that there will be any significant military or insurrectionist action in the foreseeable future. If it didn’t happen in 2020 with the multitude of provocations within that year, it probably isn’t going to happen. Sure, I’m hedging by saying ‘probably’ rather than ‘definitely’ but my crystal ball is on the blink and I never got my omniscience license. Of course I could be wrong – but I very much doubt that I am. The probability at present is that we’re not going to see any political violence that could truly be classified as a civil war.

And no, if no one is shooting, there isn’t a civil war at all. This generation is used to a much more civil body politic than we’ve ever enjoyed before – this raucous, winner take all, no holds barred politics we’re seeing now is pretty much politics as usual for the US of A. It might be a little more tipsy than usual, but it’s far from tearing us apart. Truth is, most of ‘us’ still aren’t really paying this mess any attention – just look at CNN’s ratings.

Second question then, what’s the media doing hyping this civil war 2.0 nonsense for? Simple – when you’re losing and your opponent is wiping dirt out of his eyes, try telling him you’re winning and he can’t win. Discouragement is an effective political weapon – so is disinformation. The idea here is to convince ‘the Right’ that if they don’t back down, the whole country is going to be destroyed. That works about as well as it sounds like it would – on the conservative base. But on less committed conservatives, less well informed people in general and inattentive independents, it actually can work – which is why the media is trying it again.

Can work doesn’t mean ‘is working’, however. The Democrat media really needs a new playbook – because people have seen this one already. It scares a few folks and annoys a bunch more. As a tactic, it’s a heavy club and you have to know just when to use it and exactly how – suffice it to say, this ain’t it.

Now, several forces are at work – the Democrat elite, the Deep State and the Democrat (aka Mainstream) Media – and that can be formidable. But these days, Democrats play like the kid who can only swing for the fences. Only, the Democrats aren’t the Sultan of Swat and they really, really need to learn how to bunt.

For example, the entire Biden agenda – Build Back Broke, as Ted Cruz calls it – just went down in flames despite the Democrats holding both Houses and the White House. They made a wish list a mile long – swinging for the fences – instead of making a budget with enough of their big items to call it a win and plenty of bones to throw the Republicans – bunting. With a razor thin majority a party is ill advised to act like it owns the place. This is something the Democrats seem genetically unable to understand and down goes their signature legislation. Seriously, this is the part of the movie where I’d go get popcorn because it’s so ridiculous.

To have a civil war, you kinda need soldiers. There are plenty of generals in the Democrat machine – but their rank and file is not interested – at least not in this. If anything, their staunchest base, the unions, are becoming disillusioned. Biden can’t get enough Haitians into the US to make up for that kind of voting block loss. If, as looks increasingly likely, the soccer moms also start wanting more than an incompetent and a string of political hacks, the Democrats are on their way to permanent minority status – think Libertarian Party minority with little to no chance of winning another seat for a decade or more.

So no, there isn’t going to be a civil war – Antifa only shows up in safe places like Portland rather than anyplace that might actually throw their backsides in jail. The actual military isn’t that much of a wild card – it’s only strongly Democrat at the top and I suspect even the ever unreliable Supreme Court would intervene to affirm Posse Comitatus if Biden even thought about issuing an executive order putting active troops on US soil. Democrats are already jumping ship at the state level – there’s no chance Pelosi could get anything through the House allowing such action – the Senate is impossible – and an attempt would likely see multiple Democrat defections to independent or even Republican status.

And this civil war lie will be just one of many dirty tricks the Democrat Media pulls over the next year as they watch their house of cards collapsing.