I suppose it’s not really a surprise when generations raised to literally believe that the sky is falling panic at the least sign of strife, domestic or international. Idiotic headlines of ‘Will Pelosi’s Trip to Taiwan Trigger World War Three’ and talking heads pontificating about the economic fallout certainly don’t help but it’s really the military response that’s scaring the pants off people.
You can relax. This isn’t the start of WWIII. It’s just the Chinese Communist Party flailing about as it begins to go down in flames. It’s kinda moot whether it’s Xi Jinping trying to distract the public from the internal disasters as he seeks his much coveted third term or the CCP as a whole trying to shore up its power with national pride and tanks. It’s unlikely that either will work.
Could we see a war? Sure, the CCP is awfully desperate. Will it be nuclear?
Well?
Sorry, had to stop laughing. No. China has snowballs. A few have ice in them but that’s all they really have. The US has wrecking balls. I don’t care how good a strategist you are, that is an unwinnable fight.
Yes, China has a lot of bright shiny toys it copied and stole from other nations. It even has a few that look really spiffy. But China is rife with corruption and nuclear weapons are expensive toys to maintain. Will all of it’s estimated 350 nuclear weapons even get out of their silos? Probably not. Does it matter? No.
Why not? Simple, just in our ready-to-use bucket the US has over 1200 nuclear weapons. So if the CCP starts a nuclear war, the CCP and China cease to exist, one as a party, the other as a nation-state.
Sorry, no post-apocalyptic zombie wars for those few of you hoping for one. You know who you are.
For the rest of you children, let’s get something straight: grown up nation-states don’t throw hissy fits because an octogenarian wants to go on a state sponsored vacation even when it’s paid for with their own money. This overreaction of the CCP is beyond the pale childish.
What’s really going on is unclear in the particulars but crystal clear in the big picture: China is nearing economic collapse and that means the CCP is in deep trouble. Even a rabbit will turn and fight if it is protecting its young. The Chinese people never valued freedom and democracy as we do but they DO value money. The CCP culled China of its history and its religions and in their place offered first communism and then cold hard cash. The Chinese people, like that rabbit, are not going to sit by while their most precious MONEY is taken away from them.
It’s a sad state of affairs. But it’s probably for the best for the Chinese people long term. They are going to have to get over their love affair with the CCP and these hits to real estate and banking are likely what it will take to break that codependent cycle.
The fall of the CCP won’t be quick, painless or pretty. But it is almost certainly going to happen. The CCP has cornered the bunny, only to find that there are over a million of them. And they are pissed.
Tanks won’t stop that. The only option is to convince people that the Big Bad Boogeyman is out to get China and that the CCP IS China. Wave the flag! Mobilize the tanks! Look scary!
Will it work? No. Tomorrow comes and the mortgage on a home that will never be built is due but the bank won’t release funds in your account. Several generations of families have worked for the money just for the deposit. You work from nine to nine six days a week and aren’t getting your money from the bank to which you entrusted it.
Do you care about the flag waving now? As the crisis spreads, do you believe the CCP is looking out for your interests?
Neither do the Chinese people affected or their friends and families. There’s evidence the banking malfeasance is more widespread than initially thought. If so, millions more will be impacted. If not, the mortgage crisis will affect plenty and as those people stop repaying futile loans, the banking crisis goes nuclear.
Not the apocalyptic kind but almost as bad for anyone that uses money. Banks fold. The CCP hasn’t got the kind of reserves necessary to shore up the whole system – most of that probably isn’t in China even if they do have it. Remember the corruption I mentioned? Owning all the cobalt mines doesn’t help you when you are a net importer of food and have no cash reserves.
This does not end well. Just ask Sri Lanka.
But, but nuclear!
Seriously, kid, you play too many video games. The party members are all 100%, genuine human. About ninety percent of them are also jackasses. But the net effect is that they all want to live on the Riveria enjoying the wealth they pilfered from the Chinese people. Nuclear war puts a very big crimp in that. No, no thanks. No nuclear war to defend the CCP’s power. By the time they even think they are that desperate, most will have already fled China.
But, but Xi!
Very big jackass, I grant. Not suicidal, however. Also, not Mao, as much as he’d like to think he is. Nuclear war only gets him a very big set of holes in the ground and a WHOLE LOT of people who want him dead if he did survive. Better big fish in a smaller pond than dead fish on the barbeque grill. All his actions to date indicate a man who wants to stay in power. Suicidal lunatics don’t bother.
The CCP is having a temper tantrum. It’s pathetic from a grown nation-state but it’s also not nearly as dangerous as the CCP wants you to believe. This isn’t how strong nations prove themselves.
This is how weak nations die.
