The President of Taiwan Tsai Ing-Wen met with Speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy on April 5, 2023. The Chinese took it in stride by pitching a fit all over diplomatic channels and social media. Then they sulked for a few days.

Once no one was lulled into any sense of security whatsoever, China unleased its military fury by pretending to blockade Taiwan and very politely staying out of the way of most maritime traffic. But just in case anyone missed the point, China released its deadliest war dog: a bad CGI of a missile attack on Taiwan. The horror!

Several legions of digital fish died on behalf of the real fish that would have perished in a live fire incident. As you will recall, China pitched a similar but more explosive hissy fit when Nancy Pelosi did the only useful thing of her entire political career by visiting Taiwan on August 2, 2022. China brutally and callously murdered untold numbers of innocent fish firing missiles over Taiwan and into the Pacific.

We would like to take a moment to thank all the selfish digital fish who sacrificed themselves in China’s CGI temper tantrum so that their scaly cousins could live peacefully in Taiwanese waters. At least until the Taiwanese fishermen get to them. Such is life.

I swear, if I hear one more idiot babbling about how we’re on the verge of WWIII because of Ukraine and we should concentrate instead on the much more dangerous China, I’m going to sue for damages based on mental cruelty. Should be a fun case since those twits are being more cruel to themselves but I digress. We’re supposed to take seriously an overgrown three year old with anger issues. Riiiight…

We’re not anywhere near a nuclear war, y’all can calm down now. Withdrawing support from Ukraine now would be the same as sending China an invitation to invade Taiwan. China is a bully. If it thinks no one will take the side of the little kid, it will pick on that kid mercilessly. The instant China believes that the US will back down from a real fight, China will launch real missiles and this time, not at the fish.

Here’s a whole university education for you in one sentence: everything is interconnected. You’re welcome.

In international relations everything is interrelated in about six different ways each. Personality politics, geopolitics, trade politics, finance politics, economic politics and a dozen others all intersect whenever two nation-states try to deal with each other. Multiply by 2 for each additional nation-state. This is why no one sane goes into International Relations. There are no simple, single answers to ANY question.

And there is never a singular cause to any action. Nation-states, even totalitarian ones, are just too big and complex for that. So when someone says there’s only one reason, just laugh along.

Yes, international relations are massively complex but they aren’t incomprehensible. Nation-states behave much like kids in school, only there’s no telling what grade any given kid is in at any given time. There are cliques and bullies, friends and foes, jerks and cool kids. These relationships are not static. Bob may be a cool kid but today he’s being a real jerk. Same thing for nation-states.

Reasons are important but they tell only part of the political story. To understand why little Timmy keeps pulling Jane’s ponytail, you do need to ask him but you also need to watch him. What he says may not match what he does and what he does is usually more indicative of what’s really going on.

Eventually, you also have to swat his little backside to make him stop. That’s the tricky part with nation-states as they have a nasty tendency to fight back. But they really aren’t much different from Timmy. If they want some benefit from an action, they will keep it up until they get what they want or someone makes them stop. Once in a while, you can even convince the stupid twerp that Jane would like him more if he’d play nice instead of yanking her hair to get her attention.

Unlike little Timmy, nation-states don’t grow out of being morons. There is no graduation. Timmy can be a responsible young man one day and a toddler the next. Nation-states are nothing if not interesting.

Obviously, most nation-states aren’t so manic-depressive and their swings tend to be longer and more predictable. This is a good thing or we’d have nuked the planet into dust by now. But they do look all cool until they are being total jerks. I’ve never seen a young diplomat. I think they gray at about age thirty just from the stress.

This means that there are multiple reasons behind China’s current behavior. Some are internal and some very external. All add up to China wants Taiwan like a lovesick teen wants a girlfriend, only slightly less rational. China is both bully and toddler right now. That makes dealing with China more problematic and really annoying.

Part of why China is so danged temperamental is that NATO won’t let Russia take Ukraine. Yes, really. If NATO can thwart Russia then the US will have no problem stopping China from invading Taiwan. China may be a cry bully but it’s also got a few braincells left. China is economically dependent on the US. Even if it could find other markets sufficient to support it, the US holds all the military cards. China is at least a decade away from circumventing the Malacca Straight at best. That means the US only needs one supercarrier to shut down China’s economy. We have eleven and are building two more.

Basically, China can only safely invade Taiwan if it knows that the US will lose interest in protecting a smaller ally. Ukraine is very much an unwelcome test case. Russia is no doubt in the dog house with China for springing that little bombshell on them in February 2022. But since they are stuck with it, they are watching to see how the allies behave and how easily they can be broken apart.

No doubt China is ecstatic over Macron’s foot in mouth disease. Or they were until the rest of Europe swatted his behind. Kids these days.

Europe is not supposed to hang together like this. The US is not supposed to keep supporting Ukraine when there are upset conservatives back home. None of that makes sense to China but they do understand the implications. Invade Taiwan if you want to deindustrialize the hard way.

The problem is that the jig is already up. The West no longer views China as a huge market and backward geeky kid. All of a sudden normal people are very aware of China’s various misdeeds and shenanigans. China isn’t popular anymore. Without that veil of popularity, China can’t hide its preparations and skullduggery any longer. Like a burglar caught in the spotlight before he can put on his mask, China has lost the element of surprise.

China isn’t powerful enough. China doesn’t have enough allies. China doesn’t have enough influence. China doesn’t have any of its duckies in the row. All the things it needed to do before the rest of the world got wise are only partially done. It has only one hope to take Taiwan now. That the West will lose interest quickly after the invasion. Ukraine is proving the exact opposite.

All China has left is shooting digital fish.