Yes to the first. No to the second.
What is it with you people and details?! Can’t a cranky old lady get any peace around here?
Well, that’s obviously a no. So, details it is.
Y’all are probably wondering if my opinion has changed since a ceasefire doesn’t seem part of the program I anticipated. The answer is no, I haven’t changed my opinion – yet. Look, politics only comes in size people and people only come in size messy. Hiccups, bumps and just plain old weirdness are political features, not bugs. Humans don’t come in omniscient so that fictional mastermind pulling the strings behind the scenes is always and forever, fictional.
Technically, there isn’t a real ceasefire. Frankly, Hamas is so decentralized I doubt they could enforce one even if they tried – which the casual observer will notice that they never try. Having a ceasefire blow up in your face because some jerk decided he didn’t like it and started tossing grenades undermines the leadership, and especially the leaders, of any movement. A true ceasefire was never in the cards.
The interesting thing is that Israel didn’t play along with the usual game of calling a ceasefire and ignoring the hopefully outlier fire that Israel would inevitably take. For today’s discussion, We’ll pretend that the occasional rocket launched during the historic ceasefires was not intended by Hamas’ leadership. Just be aware that this is almost certainly a false assumption.
This go around, Israel is not acknowledging the cessation of fire as a ceasefire. Ignoring the legal niceties, the political reality is that Israel isn’t playing the game anymore.
So, why have a ‘ceasefire’ or time out as I’ll refer to the present cessation from here on, at all? Why not just keep hammering Hamas? In a word, hostages.
Don’t get the wrong idea. It’s not that Israel never cared about the hostages but Israel is on its homecourt. Israel knows Hamas uses hostages as pawns and frankly, Israel and most sane observers aren’t confident that the hostages can be secured without endangering Israel long term.
Turns out a month of massive aerial bombardment and all your so called friends deciding that they don’t want to help you has put Hamas in enough of a tight spot that they are willing to be semi-reasonable. Emphasis on ‘semi’ but we’ll get back to that later.
I’ve said previously that Israel doesn’t need the US that much and I stand by that but ‘not that much’ is not the same as ‘not at all’. The US has been putting pressure on Israel about negotiating for the hostages. Evidently sending the SEALS into an apocalyptic hellscape to go sniffing around a bunch of tunnels was as stupid as it sounds. They’re SEALS, not Superman.
Don’t tell the SEALS. I don’t think they know it yet. Oh they know better than play Hide ‘n Seek in tunnels with hostages around but I’m pretty sure they still think they’re Superman.
Israel wasn’t interested for over a month. What changed? Almost certainly, Hamas. This time the terrorists being returned to Hamas as almost exclusively fairly young men and in relatively small numbers. That’s not what we normally see. And it may not be so great for Hamas – which means Hamas is more desperate than they are letting on.
Now, I’m going to caveat this: Matt over at Speak the Truth on YouTube (link in description for listeners/viewers) expressed quite a bit of annoyance that the Hamas returnees were mostly military age men. Matt is a combat vet; I’m a cranky old lady. He may well be right that this exchange favors Hamas by supplying them with more men.
But I think he’s partially mistaken. Yes, the returnees are military age but they are not particularly old in that regard. Even terrorists take time to train and Hamas is under incredible pressure – are young, poorly trained grunts really what they need right now? I suspect – again, he’s the vet, not me – that Israel let Hamas have these particular guys deliberately. I also suspect, and it’s just a guess, that every trouble maker, idiot and ego inflated moron Israel had access to was on that list.
As a political commentator, I fully expect that Israel offered only the worst trained, biggest malcontents and totally useless guys it had its hands on. I would bet that IDF had a field day selecting them.
Just what Hamas needs for Christmas – all the losers that no military would ever want. And they came in such a pretty package, too!
Now, why do I as a cranky old lady with zero combat experience think I might understand Israel’s actions a bit better? Castles. Stop giggling, yes, really. Castles fascinate me with battleships coming in a close second. The astute will note that we don’t use castles or battleships anymore and my knowledge base may be a wee bit out of date. But look at Gaza. The Left keeps calling it an open air prison but when I look at it, I see a backwards facing castle.
That is very, very bad for Hamas if I’m right. With no allies to take the pressure off – the Houthies are cute but ineffective – Hamas is trapped. Castles are more than fortifications – they are literal killing machines. No tunnels will save the modern force trying to defeat that backwards castle curtain wall – sapping tech hasn’t kept pace with geophysics.
No, I’m not just rambling – for once – this all matters to why Israel is going along with the hostage exchange and why it isn’t a big win for Hamas. Israel does need the US – our presence alone is enough to keep most of Hamas’ usual cadre of frenemies from doing anything that might seriously escalate the conflict. They all remember the last time the US was PO’d enough to invade and none of them want a piece of that.
The Houthies aren’t really an exception – they can act out a lot more because they have little chance of ticking off the Americans. I’d be more careful if I were them but it’s not a bad assumption.
Hamas has its proverbial back to the wall. Israel knows it and so does Hamas. Hamas needs breathing room; Israel needs US goodwill. Trading a bunch of malcontents and poorly trained combatants for hostages is a good deal for Israel.
But, but, AID!
Yeah, yeah – it does not matter. A hundred trucks is nothing if they have even one hundred thousand mouths to feed. Ignore that – look at the southern ‘border’ between the Gaza City area and the south of Gaza – which way are civilians going?
South. First off, not that many are keen to go north when the time out can end at any moment, but even those that want to go home can’t – Israel is only permitting civilian travel south. This is directly contrary to Hamas’ calls for Gazan civilians to stay put. No, I’m not kidding. Great government ya got there, Gaza.
Not as many civilians as Hamas needs to leave if they are planning to hold out for a modern siege but Hamas only wants civilian shields. They seem a bit confused that Israel is not playing by the old kiddie rules. Politically, this makes it even harder for the imbecilic part of the Left to defend Hamas and impossible for the more politically astute to keep up the façade much longer. Israel gets to let the Americans have their moment while being helpful to the good guys. Hamas gets little more than a coffee break, loses some of their civilian shields and looks like the bad guys they are.
It’s a win-win for Israel and the cherry on top is that a rest for Hamas is also a rest for Israel. Betcha Israel is putting that time to good – for them – use.
Hamas pulling stunts helps Israel, hurts Qatar (no one needs to cry) and only makes things worse for Hamas. Qatar is probably stinging from the fact that Egypt had to step in on the second hostage release. Qatar wants to be relevant so it doesn’t get gobbled up in the Middle Eastern turmoil to come and having your pet terrorists fail to do their trick on cue undermines that – a LOT. Qatar may well decide that Hamas is a liability and you know what happens to liabilities in the Middle East.
Egypt would love for Hamas to cease to exist, preferably by having the entire lot cease breathing. Israel was positively cuddly compared to the Egyptians and now Hamas needs Egypt, probably for its long term survival. This just gets better and better, for Israel. Hamas, not so much.
The Gazans? They lose but that may, just may, be for the best. An entire people used as political pawns for decades cannot make lives for themselves let alone build a nation for themselves. Perpetual refugee status benefits the rest of the Middle Eastern powers but not them. Gaza is a death trap and it can’t be anything else for the Gazans no matter how nice Israel behaves. Hamas will be replaced with more crazies – that much the media gets right – and this cycle only starts over.
There’s no hope in Gaza for the Palestinian Arabs. Which means it can never be a home for a people – nations need hope. Food, water, shelter, power and the ability to procure those things for themselves are also essential for a nation-state. None of that exists, or can, in Gaza. Only dependence on Israel and perpetual uncertainty remain for them in Gaza. Losing Gaza may just be the best thing for the Gazans.
‘Cause the status quo certainly ain’t!
Of course, that’s much easier for me to say than it will be for the Gazans to come to grips with. In the meantime, the time out is temporary and will end a lot faster than Hamas or the Gazans will be ready for. War 2.0 is coming and coming fast.
While this little break serves Israel as I’ve discussed, it won’t serve Israel to extend it for very long. Hamas will be Hamas and most of the aid packages will disappear in their hive of tunnels and bunkers. It’s a drop in the bucket and Hamas doesn’t have enough hostages to get enough aid to survive this. They may take Israel up on the extra day per ten released hostages deal but not to the point of losing all of the only bargaining chip they have left.
Hamas is quickly running out of options. Castles do that – they are designed to eliminate options. There’s not enough of ANYTHING. Civilians are getting so desperate that they will begin – if they haven’t already – to defy Hamas. Surrender to the IDF or starve is a horrible choice but knowing your ‘government’ is the one backing you into that corner makes it all the worse. Also all the more likely. Those shields are going to become feisty.
Let’s just say I doubt the IDF will be responsible for all the deaths of Hamas fighters.
A real ceasefire would be suicide for Israel and they know it. Israel is going to see this through because they have to – their survival as a nation-state is very much on the line. There can be no victory for Hamas. Hamas cannot survive.
Hamas has gotten the memo. It just doesn’t know what to do about it.
So, this little timeout wins Israel some US brownie points, a few international brownie points, messes up Hamas’ international PR and (probably) has little military impact.
What does the US get out of it?
Well, the Biden admin was hoping for a diplomatic victory to offset some political costs they are paying with their crazier base back home. The US got, so far, a four year old. A, singular. Out of all the hostages released only that one child was an American.
Make no mistake, we’re delighted to have her safe but that really messed up Biden. His great diplomatic coup – getting a ‘ceasefire’ from Israel – just blew up in his face. Where are OUR people? Why so few Americans released? No one back home gives a horse’s backside about the temporary ceasefire that looks more like a kid’s time out – they want our hostages RELEASED. NOW.
After the total screw up of the Afghanistan withdrawal you’d think the Biden admin would have gotten it through their evidently impenetrable skulls that the American people expect the American Government to protect AMERICANS first and foremost. Whether Hamas backstabbed them – which is highly probable – or they were stupid enough to not make sure a healthy percentage of Americans were included in the release – this is a political disaster for Biden back home.
I mean, no one may notice amid the train wreck that is the Biden admin but I guarantee that this is going on Trump’s list of things to bring up at the 2024 Presidential Debates next year.
Even the Super SEALS can’t save Biden – or Hamas – now.
