Seriously? One little kick in the proverbial behind and you’re convinced the United States is suddenly ‘unreliable’?
Does your definition of reliability involve promising to do something and not bothering for twelve years? ‘Cause we Americans seem to recall you European NATO members promising to get your defense spending up to 2% of GDP back when Obama was still in office. Just so you know, 2% was half of the 4% of GDP that the US spent on defense at the time. We weren’t asking you to spend as much in real money as we do because we knew you couldn’t possibly do that but to just put half of the proportion that we do into defending your own countries.
You didn’t get serious about that until Russia invaded Ukraine and you STILL haven’t achieved it.
Real reliable there, guys.
Should we also discuss the EU insisting on closer ties to both Russia and China over three US administrations advising caution? How’s that working out for you, Germany?
You did send munitions to Ukraine – but you didn’t exactly ramp up production, did ya? Nope, left that to the US and Ukraine itself. I know, you think America doesn’t like Ukraine anymore but you’re wrong. Those guys may have the short end of the stick but they are pretty danged reliable about using it.
Unlike some.
Okay, if you’re through chest pounding, let’s talk.
After all, talking is the one thing Europe is good at. Doing, not so much but talking, oh yeah, you’re great at that.
Here’s the thing. To supply Ukraine in the short term Europe would have to buy American weapons. Yes, really. It takes time to build out both factories and the infrastructure to build this stuff fast enough to keep a war going. Time Europe doesn’t have.
Oh, not to worry. The US is proud to serve its long term business partners as long as you’re paying. Yes, Trump will sell you the things you need and laugh in your face doing it. He really does want a peace deal and if you’re stupid enough to prefer fighting, don’t expect him to play nice about it.
I personally think Trump has several cards up his sleeve. If you would quit assuming the worst no matter what the man does, you might notice a few things.
One. If Trump wanted to dump Ukraine he’d have done it on January 20th. Subtly is not out guy’s thing. He’s not playing 4d chess; he’d have withdrawn aid immediately if that was what he really wanted to do.
Two. You can’t negotiate with people you won’t talk to or who won’t talk to you. You guys keep assuming that Trump is pro-Russia when he’s not actually acting that way. He’s more tolerant than you like because he needs Putin to come to the table. Flies like honey more than vinegar, after all.
Three: It’s having some success. Putin at least talked to Trump. He’s mostly complied with the infrastructure ceasefire and now there’s a Black Sea ceasefire. It’s not great progress, but it is progress and seems to be purposeful.
Peace negotiations are long term and thorny as heck. But if Trump wanted to just give Putin everything he wanted, Europe certainly couldn’t stop him.
Oh, simmer down! Less yelling, more thinking!
Trump can pull US aid and US weapons any time he pleases. That would not stop the war but it’d sure damage Ukraine and help Russia. But – now, pay attention here – Trump hasn’t done it. That guy knows where his signing pen is and knows how to use it. Literally, the only thing stopping Trump from a total pullout is Trump.
Why do you suppose that is? Why doesn’t Trump just drop the whole thing, pull out of NATO and get on with life, if that’s really what he intends to do?
You know the answer. Yes, you do. Stop procrastinating.
That’s right. Trump isn’t doing those things because they aren’t his intentions.
Trump intends to get a good peace deal, not just whatever scraps Putin wants to give up. Where Zelenskyy has little leverage over the situation, Putin is more problematic. He’s got part of what he wants and is going to have to be convinced to give things up. That takes time and skill. It’s the kind of thing Trump literally built his empire on. Trump is the one guy that just might be able to get Ukraine a good deal without smearing the Russian’s nose in anything.
Will he? Dunno. But I do see ample evidence that he is trying. It’d be easier to just keep dumping munitions on the thing until one side or the other screams ‘uncle’ but maybe, just maybe that isn’t what is actually best. Maybe peace can be an option – IF we can get a really good deal.
Or you guys can start building munitions factories in places that don’t have high unemployment and destabilize yourselves. Oh, stop trying to look innocent. You Europeans were already eying those soon to be abandoned German car factories, never mind that Spain, Italy and Greece all desperately need more jobs.
You’re not exactly reliable partners within the EU and you danged well know it.
So, you can keep acting all aggrieved, Europe, or you can get off your collective duffs and do something for once. You need to build out your defense industry even if the US stays in the game.
By the way, we are staying. Watching Europe whip itself into shape is a show we’ve waited thirty-five years to see.
You also need to share the wealth quite a bit. The economically disadvantaged countries in the South and East of Europe need those new factories. Make sure they get a goodly share.
You’re going to have to put boots on the ground for the long haul.
You’re also going to have to find ways to lose your dependence on Russia and China while you’re outgrowing your dependence on the US. It’s gonna hurt but you can do this. It’ll take time but as long as you keep at it, the US will support you.
Regardless, whether you think the US is abandoning you or you realize it’s time to be grown up nation states now, Europe no longer has a choice. The only nations that will let you be dependent on them will subjugate you eventually. The one nation that is your reliable friend is not going to let you remain a dependent because Europe needs to grow up.
One giant baby step at a time.
