The latter. You can quit panicking now. Have a nice day.

What do you mean you don’t understand? You don’t know what a party system shift even is? What are they teaching in graduate level Poli Sci nowadays?

Oh, right. Not everyone took those classes.

Which is a condemnation of the edumacation system. Seriously, this happens fairly regularly in American politics. It’s a feature, not a bug. You’d think they’d mention this in History and American Government in middle school at least.

SIGH…

So, you’re still here which means you are waiting for the details. So much for a short post.

Sigh.

Okay, kiddies, here’s the short version. America has a two party system that periodically realigns itself. Those realignments are called party system shifts…

You’re looking up realignment, aren’t you?

The two party system results from America’s strong centrism. Because Americans tend to share a lot of common values, we tend to fight more about solutions to problems than what system would best solve them. We fight over how much regulation or how little rather than whether we should have a capitalist system or socialist. Europe tends to do the opposite. Since America is pretty okay with the overall system we focus on the solutions. The result is that parties tend to distinguish themselves on their solutions to issues rather than trying to reform the entire American system of government.

The result is that the parties usually don’t differ a lot because Americans don’t differ half as much as they think they do. If you want to get the most seats in Congress, your party has got to play mostly to the middle which is where most American voters will be.

The fun part is that the center changes over time. This is the political pendulum. The people will shift more to the liberal side then gradually – think in terms of decades – shift more to the conservative side. At least right now, left and right mostly define the pendulum but it isn’t always quite the same. What’s happening is that the public gets a sense that things are going too far in a given direction and they start to change direction. It’s a long process and easy to forget about, but it’s critical for a political party to keep its platform in line with where the center is in order to maintain the ability to win elections.

Political parties suffer from the fatal defect of being made of people. No one bats a thousand. Party leadership and bases make mistakes. They assume everyone thinks like they do. They assume the body politic (people) are closer to the party’s position than they are. And occasionally, parties forget they are just loose coalitions that can fall apart and start doing stupid stuff even their own rank and file can’t stomach.

The party gets away from the true center. But its own rank and file will be drawn to that center – Americans are insanely centrist. Eventually, the party tears itself apart and collapses.

When a major American political party collapses a party system shift has occurred. Rarely does only one party collapse and it’s not always completely devastating, but once collapse occurs, the internal coalitions start realigning. Some will stay with the husk of the old party while others join the other party or, as in the Nineties, declare independence. Groups and individuals both move in the realignment. Eventually, a new party forms, most commonly out of the ashes of the old, and the two party system continues.

In Political Science world we’re still arguing over whether what happened in the Nineties was a complete system shift or not. I am on the 5.5 side – I think it was so incomplete that it shouldn’t be regarded as a full shift. Others argue that the Independent movement was so draining on the major parties that a full shift did occur. Why this matters is Team 5.5 calls the current shift Number 6 while Team Did Too considers it Number 7.

You’re more likely to hear the current shift referred to as the seventh. It’s like the turn of the century. Technically it occurs at the beginning of the 01 year, not the 00 year. The 21st century began on 1/1/2001. Technically true and everyone thinks was actually on 1/1/2000. I’m technically right that this is Number Six and it will not matter in the least because everyone is referring to the current party system shift as Number 7.

Go right ahead and call it Number 7. It only matters academically anyway.

Ah, you’re asking the important question now. How do I know it is a party system shift and not just a crisis period? Simple, the Republican Party already collapsed in January of 2024.

Did too. It was in all the papers.

Yes, really. Trump’s coalition took control of the party leadership. The party began realigning around the Populist and Conservative bases. FYI: that collapse is in large part responsible for Trump winning in 2024. Without the takeover, Trump would have been fighting both the Democrats and the Old School Republicans. His own party would have sabotaged him.

It takes a long time for a party to fully realign so there’s still fireworks to come, but it’s mainly leftover firecrackers and bottle rockets now. All the cool stuff has already been fired. Well, at least on the right side of the aisle.

The Democrats are in the process of fully collapsing and seem determined to self destruct. Remember, American political parties only thrive in the center. The Democrat’s base and leadership are actively resisting their centrists. The only folks that can save the party are getting ousted. This is unlikely to end well.

I’m still not expecting them to last through June. Parties, like nation-states, are resilient and the Dems could surprise me. But since they have yet to successfully block supposedly controversial Trump appointees, color me extremely dubious. They can’t stop Trump. They have no idea how he won. They refuse to listen to moderates. The Democrats are busily tearing their own party apart. I suspect they will succeed.

If you like political fireworks, watch the Dems. I hear they have a whole truckload of stuff to lob at each other.

Popcorn, anyone?