Is Afghanistan better off after the American withdrawal? Of course not.
What were people expecting? Everyone complained how the war had dragged on so long – really? What war? Oh, don’t you look at me like that, what war exactly? We never declared war so technically we were never at war. That aside, the significant hostilities – the part you can legitimately call a war – ended over a decade ago. While hardly a bastion of peace and tranquility, Afghanistan during most of the American occupation was relatively secure.
So much for that.
We don’t need to pretend the military occupation was necessarily a good thing – it drug out way too long and the civilian side was not well managed. Nor do we need to pretend that those who wanted the withdrawal didn’t have a valid point or three. But neither should we bemoan the occupation as some long drawn out war because it wasn’t. It was an occupation and there were still some hostilities, but that pales in comparison to the invasion or to most US military interventions.
Don’t get me wrong, I’m not arguing whether or not we should have stayed in – too late for that spilled milk – nor am I condemning those who believed we needed to withdraw. What I am saying is that Biden botched it so horribly that both sides can agree nothing good came of the withdrawal.
No doubt some US military hardware has made it to China to be reverse engineered. That’s probably the least of the problems, given China’s precarious economy. What is much more troubling is how many US made weapons are now all over the Middle East black markets. Taliban gonna taliban so, of course, they are selling everything they can to the highest bidder.
The Taliban kept none of its promises. I know, big shock, huh? People who worked with and for the US who didn’t make it out have been killed. It’s probably much worse but let’s not guess and just use what we know. Girls no longer get to go to school. Women have lost their rights. No surprises at all.
The Afghan economy collapsed unless you count its only exports, guns and opium. You can’t eat either and the taliban likely takes more than a small cut of that revenue. While they are importing some things like food, you can bet most of that cash goes into taliban pockets and not hungry bellies.
China has its eye on Afghanistan. Not for the guns and opium but for the transit rights. China is the largest importer of oil by far and Afghanistan is in the way of some very nice little oil fields. Russia has similar ideas as pushing its influence to surround the Caspian Sea would include a need to transit oil to the Persian Gulf. On the bright side, Russia is a bit busy right now and China has its hands full with other things. Still, if they get a chance, both will be back.
Pakistan is in collapse It’s a big problem both for those still trying to flee Afghanistan and for the taliban needing some kind of sea access. Pakistan doesn’t want to deal with either and especially not with anything that costs them money. Being massively indebted to China may have been a bad plan.
We don’t have great data but there’s no good evidence that life in Afghanistan is anything but much worse. No US cash to pay for all those necessary imports like food (not kidding, poppies grow like weeds, wheat grows like rocks, as in not at all) and few places to turn for more money.
Afghanistan used to be a major terrorist exporter – that was what got them in trouble in the first place – but the world has changed and none of the Gulf States are interested in spending money on terrorist training. The US invaded two countries in the region as if they were playgrounds. Nobody wants to play this game again.
The stuff left by the US will run out probably sooner rather than later. Oh, it will show up worldwide to be a major thorn in the side for the US for decades to come, but the taliban’s gun running days are numbered. Afghanistan makes goats and poppies, not M16s. Less well endowed, that is, not state sponsored, terrorists will show up for camp but that won’t pay the bills. Russia doesn’t need the headache and China really doesn’t need the risk so opium export is gonna be fun.
They’ll at least manage that one but at a price. Higher the price, the lower the profit.
So basically, the taliban will make everyone miserable and half starved. Eventually, it will probably factionalize and start shooting each other. Humanitarian aid is already coming in but charity doesn’t overcome crappy governance.
It’s been a year. So far, things have not gone well at all. Nothing looks promising.
Gee, thanks, Joe.
